Stage 1 · The pattern tree, in order
RULE-0 → not-an-agent
steps ≤ 2 AND one domain AND consequence is not regulated AND the order of steps is fixed
RULE-1 → single
steps ≤ 2 AND one domain
RULE-2 → pipeline
fixed order AND steps ≤ 6
RULE-3 → router
interactive latency AND steps ≤ 6
RULE-4 → supervisor · this one fired
domains ≥ 2 AND steps ≥ 4
RULE-5 → fan-out
(regulated OR a diagnosis or drafting workload) AND latency is not interactive AND runs ≤ 50,000/month
RULE-6 → supervisor
the selected pattern costs more than 3x the supervisor alternative (evaluated after costing)
First match wins. Rule 6 runs after costing: a pattern costing more than 3× the supervisor alternative is downgraded and we say so. Fan-out is withdrawn above 50,000 runs a month.
Stage 2 · Components
Each component is an independent boolean carrying its own trigger sentence — the bill of materials prints all eleven, in or out, with the reason. Audit trail and deterministic fallback are locked on.
Stage 3 · Model tier per role
- Planner FRONTIERPlanning errors compound across every downstream step. Cheapest place to spend, most expensive place to save.
- Router SMALLClassification into under twenty buckets is the most reliably distillable job in the stack. Frontier routing is the most common waste we see.
- Specialist SMALLTemplated extraction against a known schema distils down cleanly. Spend the difference on the validator.
- Evaluator MIDExplicitly a DIFFERENT model family from the generator. An evaluator sharing the generator's failure modes rubber-stamps them — independence beats capability here.
- Guardrail SMALLA latency budget, not an intelligence budget.
- Synthesiser MIDAssembling a final answer from settled parts is not the hard bit.
Stage 4 · Tokens and cost
The formula is printed in full in section 06 above, with your live figures substituted. Serial specialist call counts by pattern: single = N · pipeline = N (each stage narrower, context ×0.65, no transcript carried) · router = ⌈0.6N⌉ · supervisor = N with each worker re-reading the context · fan-out = 3 × ⌈N/2⌉ across parallel branches.
Review rate by derived oversight posture: advisory 100% · assisted, exceptions only 15% · autonomous with an audit sample 3% · autonomous 0%. You do not set this. It follows from the consequence of a wrong answer and the modelled end-to-end reliability.
Stage 5 · Latency and reliability
per-call p50 = TTFT(tier) + (O + Th) / throughput(tier), summed along the serial path, plus 0.35s per retrieval hop and 1.0s per tool call across 2 round trips. p95 = p50 × 2.1, an assumption and an upper bound. End-to-end reliability = A5 ^ serial steps.
What this tool cannot tell you
It has no benchmark, no peer cohort and no data about your organisation. It does not model build cost, change management, or the evaluation programme that actually decides whether any of this reaches production. It makes no model call of its own — every figure on this page is arithmetic you can reproduce.