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02

Tool 02 · Architecture & run cost

What shape would this agent be — and what does it cost to run?

Describe the workflow and its constraints in about ninety seconds. You get a real blueprint back: the orchestration pattern, the components we would and would not build, a model tier per role with the reason, and the envelope it runs in. No email, no gate, and every coefficient in the model is a slider you can move.

What this one can tell you

  • That this should not be an agent at all — the first rule in the tree returns “not an agent”, and it fires on settings close to the defaults.
  • That your bill is quadratic in step count, because every step re-sends the accumulated transcript.
  • That your oversight posture, not your model choice, is what sets your monthly cost.

prices as of 26 Jul 2026 — verify at source

Configure

Describe the workflow

Eight inputs, each with its unit and range. Everything else is an assumption you can see and change below. Nothing recalculates on a button — it recalculates as you move.
01 · Workflow class

The profile beside each option is what actually drives the pattern tree — domains, whether the order is fixed, whether it needs a corpus, and how many systems one run touches. Nothing hidden is load-bearing.

runs / month

Logarithmic, because every interesting decision on this page lives between 10,000 and 100,000.

$8,891 of model spend at this volume
steps

Distinct decisions or system touches in one run. The single most load-bearing input on the page: it sets the pattern, the token snowball, the serial latency and the end-to-end reliability.

8 of them land on the serial path
pages

Rendered live at your tokens-per-page assumption. Above 120,000 tokens the model stops sending the payload whole and switches you to retrieval.

≈ 6,000 tokens
05 · Answer length per step
06 · Latency tolerance
07 · Consequence of a wrong answer

An input. The oversight posture — and therefore the review line in your bill — is an output we derive from it, never something you set to make the number look better.

08 · Deployment
Assumptions you can change12 coefficients

Every coefficient that moves the answer is here, and every one of them is a slider. Change them and the blueprint, the envelope and the bill of materials all move with you.

tokens / page

Derived from the published ~0.75 words-per-token ratio, not a measured figure. Dense legal or academic text runs higher.

Assumptionyours to set

6,000 of payload per run
%

Your system prompt, tool schemas and few-shot examples cache. Your payload does not. At a 1.25x write and a 0.10x read, a cached prefix pays for itself after one read.

Assumptionyours to set

prefix 2,290 · effective input 183K

PublishedAnthropic pricing documentation, 26 Jul 2026(verify at source — the 0.10× read and 1.25× write multipliers this slider is applied through)

×

Multiplies every model call. Above 1.00 it also means some runs repeat a write — see the failure-mode dossier.

Assumptionyours to set

passes

Zero passes means nothing independent checks the output. That is a legitimate choice; it is not a free one.

Assumptionyours to set

× a call

Assumptionyours to set

%

The probability one step is right. It compounds — which is the whole point of the reliability panel below.

Assumptionyours to set

end-to-end 66.3%
tokens

Tool results ride the accumulated transcript, so this is one of the two terms the snowball is quadratic in. Published guidance caps tool output around 25,000 tokens before it is offloaded to a file.

Assumptionyours to set

tokens

Above zero this switches the latency model to the reasoning series — a different category, not an increment. The figures then read as end-to-end first-answer time including thinking, not time-to-first-token.

Assumptionyours to set

min

Assumptionyours to set

/ hr

Deliberately the same default as the payback model, so the two tools cannot disagree with each other.

Assumptionyours to set

%

Gateway, vector store, tracing, eval runs, on-call.

Assumptionyours to set

×

Published list prices move monthly and ours will go stale. This re-runs the entire model against the prices you actually pay.

Assumptionyours to set

Price table — $/MTok, throughput and time-to-first-token

prices as of 26 Jul 2026 — verify at source

The per-MTok rates are the published figures; throughput and time-to-first-token are assumptions and move constantly. MID is set to the standard rate, not an introductory rate that reverts — a calculator hard-coding a promotional price is factually wrong five weeks after launch.

FRONTIERFrontierPlanning and regulated specialist work.

PublishedAnthropic pricing documentation, 26 Jul 2026(verify at source)

Assumptionyours to set

MIDMidStandard rate, not the introductory rate that reverts on 1 Sep 2026. Default specialist and evaluator tier.

PublishedAnthropic pricing documentation, 26 Jul 2026(verify at source)

Assumptionyours to set

SMALLSmallRouting, guardrails and classification. A latency budget, not an intelligence budget.

PublishedAnthropic pricing documentation, 26 Jul 2026(verify at source)

Assumptionyours to set

The envelope

What it costs to run

Cost per run
$0.445195K tokens · 8 specialist calls
Monthly run cost, all in
$24Ktokens + platform + review at 20,000 runs / month
p95 latency
99.9sp50 47.6s · 8 serial model hopsOver your stated 30s budget.
End-to-end reliability
66.3%95.0% per step across 8 serial steps

Rounded hard on purpose. This is a sizing instrument, not a quote — the p95 is a 2.1× assumption on the p50 and a deliberately conservative upper bound.

Orchestration verdict

SUPERVISOR + SPECIALISTS

Several domains and a discovered path is the one case where a supervisor earns its complexity — and its token bill.

8 components in, 3 ruled out. Assisted — exceptions onlyA wrong answer moves money, so the exceptions get a human and the rest do not.

Your p95 is over the latency budget you set. Send us the workflow behind this configuration and we will tell you which of these choices we would argue with — and which one would have killed it in production. One business day.

Challenge this latency budget

We reply within one business day.

Selected by rule-4domains ≥ 2 AND steps ≥ 4. The whole rule tree is printed below, in order, so you can see which rules you missed.

What if you simplified?

Supervisor + specialistsRouter + specialists

The identical workload, recomputed under the next-simpler pattern. Three signed figures, on your inputs — we are not quoting anyone’s percentage at you.

Monthly
-$5,966
p95
-33.25s
End-to-end
+11.0 pts
The blueprint

What we would actually build

Four bands: what comes in, what screens and routes it, the pattern that does the work, and what happens on the way out. Every component we ruled out is drawn too — dashed, with a “—” tier chip and its reason in the bill of materials. You are looking at the road not taken, not a sales-shaped subset.
INPUT
  • Input payload8 pp · 6,000
  • Curated corpusnot indexed
INGRESS
  • Guardrail, inSMALL1 call
  • RouterSMALL1 call
CORESupervisor + specialists
  • PlannerFRONTIER1 call
  • SpecialistSMALL8 calls · 176K
  • SynthesiserMID1 call
  • Retrievalpayload sent whole
  • Working memory+12% ctx
  • Long-term memoryruns independent
  • Tool calling2 tools · 2.00s
EGRESS
  • EvaluatorMID1 pass
  • Guardrail, outSMALL1 call
  • Human review queue15% reviewed
  • System of record + audit traillocked

Supervisor + specialists — domains ≥ 2 AND steps ≥ 4

The accent thread is the critical serial path — 9 stages, and the only thing that sets your p95 of 99.9s. Dashed nodes are components we ruled out on your inputs; the reason for each is in the bill of materials.

Bill of materials

Every component, in or out

The artefact worth screenshotting. Model cost per run by component; human review is priced per reviewed item and shown in the cost stack below.
ComponentIn the build?Model tierWhyTokens / run$ / run
PlannerYesFRONTIERIncluded: the pattern needs a plan before it delegates. Planning errors compound across every downstream step.16,330$0.103
RouterYesSMALLIncluded: the pattern dispatches to specialists, so something has to classify first.1,280$0.0018
Specialist callsYesSMALLThe work itself. The accumulated transcript lands here, which is why this row is quadratic in step count.175,640$0.210
Retrieval over a curated corpusNoExcluded: the payload is small enough to send whole. A vector store here is infrastructure you would maintain for nothing.0$0.0000
Tool callingYesIncluded: 1 system to touch, at 2 round trips each.1,200/callin the specialist line
Working memoryYesIncluded: past three steps a run has state worth carrying, and carrying it explicitly is cheaper than re-deriving it.+12% of contextin the specialist line
Long-term memoryNoExcluded: each run is independent. Cross-run memory here is a poisoning surface with no upside.0$0.0000
Guardrails, in and outYesSMALLIncluded: input and output screening on a small model, plus a free deterministic schema check. A latency budget, not an intelligence budget.1,880$0.0025
EvaluatorYesMIDIncluded: being wrong costs money here, so something independent has to check the output. It must be a different model family from the generator — an evaluator sharing the generator's failure modes rubber-stamps them.priced as a fraction of a call$0.127
Human-in-the-loop queueNoExcluded at this consequence level — but note that the review rate, not the model, is what sets your bill once it is on.0$0.0000
Audit traillockedYesEvery architecture we ship has this. It is not an option.0build cost, not run cost
Deterministic fallback pathlockedYesEvery architecture we ship has this. It is not an option.0build cost, not run cost

Audit trail and deterministic fallback ship in every architecture we build. They are not options, which is why they carry no tier and no switch.

The cost stack

Where the money actually goes

$24K a month, split three ways. The proportions are yours, not a fixed ratio we assert.
$0$24K / month
Model tokens
$8,89137%Every call, after caching, retries and evaluator passes.
Platform overhead
$2,2239%Gateway, vector store, tracing, eval runs, on-call.
Human review
$13K54%Assisted — exceptions only. 3,000 runs reviewed at 4 min and $65/hr.

Human review is 54% of the monthly bill and model tokens are 37%. You came here to pick a cheaper model. On your own numbers, the model is not the bill — and review is the one line no price negotiation touches.

The snowball

Why the bill is quadratic in step count

An agent is not ten requests. It is ten progressively larger requests, because every step re-sends the accumulated transcript. Every public token calculator prices a single call and multiplies.
Total tokens per run against steps per run, 1 to 25. At 8 steps the modelled total is 195K tokens against a naive linear estimate of 85K tokens.1 STEP25 STEPS919K0

Solid: modelled total tokens per run · Dashed: the naive linear estimate (tokens at one step × N)

At 8 steps you are paying for 195K tokens per run against a naive 85K — a 2.3× understatement. Every step re-sends the accumulated transcript, so at twenty steps you are paying for the same context twenty times over. That is why the bill was never the price list.

The formula, in full

S_prefix = SYS_BASE(900)
         + TOOL_SCHEMA(220 × 2 tools)
         + FEWSHOT(600)
         + TOOL_USE_OVERHEAD(350)
         = 2,290

D_ctx    = min(pages × A1, 120,000)
         = 13,440 per call

O = 450   K = 1,200   Th = 0   N = 8

inputTokens  = N × (S_prefix + D_ctx) + (O + K) × N(N−1)/2
                                        └── the snowball: 46,200
outputTokens = N × (O + Th)

effectiveIn  = (inputTokens − S_prefix×N)
             + S_prefix×N × [hit×0.1 + (1−hit)×1.25]

costRun      = Σ roles [effectiveIn×rateIn + outTok×rateOut] / 1e6
             × A3(1.15) × (1 + A4×frac) × A10(1.00)
             × onprem(1.00) × batch(1.00)
             = $0.445

Sanity check on the published basis: S_prefix 3,000, D_ctx 4,000, O 600, K 1,200, N 10 gives 70,000 + 81,000 = 151,000 input tokens against a naive 70,000 — a 2.2× understatement before any other error.

Every term in that formula, labelled

  • Cache read 0.10× / write 1.25×

    PublishedAnthropic pricing documentation, 26 Jul 2026(verify at source)

  • Batch discount 50%

    PublishedAnthropic pricing documentation, 26 Jul 2026(Does not apply to interactive requests or to managed-agent sessions.)

  • Minimum cacheable prefix 1,024 tokens

    PublishedAnthropic pricing documentation, 26 Jul 2026

  • Tool-use system-prompt overhead 350 tokens

    PublishedAnthropic pricing documentation, 26 Jul 2026(286–406 published by model; we use one rounded figure)

  • Base system prompt 900 tokens

    Assumptionyours to set

  • Tool schema 220 tokens per declared tool

    Assumptionyours to set

  • Few-shot examples 600 tokens

    Assumptionyours to set

  • Retrieved context 3,500 tokens per call

    Assumptionyours to set

Reliability arithmetic

A 95% system is a 60% system

Nothing is broken. The arithmetic simply multiplies down every serial step.

As configured

At 95.0% per step across 8 serial steps, end-to-end is 66.3%.

What the target would cost

To reach 95% end-to-end you would need 99.36% per step.

The lever is the step count, not the model. Move steps out of the loop into deterministic code and the exponent falls with them.

Failure-mode dossier

Where this one breaks

Each of these is triggered by something you actually selected, and each carries the mitigation the configured build includes.

Compounding step error

At 95.0% per step across 8 serial steps, end-to-end is 66.3%. Nothing in the system is broken; the arithmetic simply multiplies down.

Mitigation

Move steps out of the model loop into deterministic code, and evaluate each remaining step independently rather than only the final answer.

Silent misroute

The router sends an item to the wrong specialist. The specialist answers competently — about the wrong thing.

Mitigation

A confidence floor on the classification, a fallback route, and per-route accuracy in the eval harness.

Supervisor-to-worker context loss

The worker receives a task description rather than the full situation, and solves the description.

Mitigation

Explicit typed hand-off contracts, and a worker-level check that the task is answerable from what it was given.

Evaluator collusion

A critic from the same model family shares the generator's blind spots and rubber-stamps them, which reads as high quality right up until it does not.

Mitigation

The evaluator is specified as a different model family from the generator, and is itself measured against the golden set.

What we would change

Written as advice

Generated because a constraint you set is breached. One of these can be “don’t build this”, and when it is, we mean it.
  • latency

    p95 is over your stated budget

    Modelled p95 is 99.9s against a 30s budget. The lever is the serial path, not the model: collapse steps, run independent work in parallel, or move the whole thing off the interactive path and return a result asynchronously.

    Ask us how we would get p95 under your budget →

  • cost

    Review, not tokens, is your bill

    Human review is 54% of the monthly cost. No model price negotiation touches that line. Better routing and better evaluation are the only levers on it, and that is a build decision rather than a procurement one.

    Ask us where we would take the cost out →

Disclosure

How this is modelled

Our rubric, not an industry benchmark — here is every rule and every coefficient so you can argue with it. We have no cohort and no peer set, and we do not pretend otherwise.
How this is modelled — the five stages5 stages

The same module renders the running tool and the published methodology page, so this disclosure cannot drift from the code that produced your answer.

Stage 1 · The pattern tree, in order

  1. RULE-0not-an-agent

    steps ≤ 2 AND one domain AND consequence is not regulated AND the order of steps is fixed

  2. RULE-1single

    steps ≤ 2 AND one domain

  3. RULE-2pipeline

    fixed order AND steps ≤ 6

  4. RULE-3router

    interactive latency AND steps ≤ 6

  5. RULE-4supervisor · this one fired

    domains ≥ 2 AND steps ≥ 4

  6. RULE-5fan-out

    (regulated OR a diagnosis or drafting workload) AND latency is not interactive AND runs ≤ 50,000/month

  7. RULE-6supervisor

    the selected pattern costs more than 3x the supervisor alternative (evaluated after costing)

First match wins. Rule 6 runs after costing: a pattern costing more than 3× the supervisor alternative is downgraded and we say so. Fan-out is withdrawn above 50,000 runs a month.

Stage 2 · Components

Each component is an independent boolean carrying its own trigger sentence — the bill of materials prints all eleven, in or out, with the reason. Audit trail and deterministic fallback are locked on.

Stage 3 · Model tier per role

  • Planner FRONTIERPlanning errors compound across every downstream step. Cheapest place to spend, most expensive place to save.
  • Router SMALLClassification into under twenty buckets is the most reliably distillable job in the stack. Frontier routing is the most common waste we see.
  • Specialist SMALLTemplated extraction against a known schema distils down cleanly. Spend the difference on the validator.
  • Evaluator MIDExplicitly a DIFFERENT model family from the generator. An evaluator sharing the generator's failure modes rubber-stamps them — independence beats capability here.
  • Guardrail SMALLA latency budget, not an intelligence budget.
  • Synthesiser MIDAssembling a final answer from settled parts is not the hard bit.

Stage 4 · Tokens and cost

The formula is printed in full in section 06 above, with your live figures substituted. Serial specialist call counts by pattern: single = N · pipeline = N (each stage narrower, context ×0.65, no transcript carried) · router = ⌈0.6N⌉ · supervisor = N with each worker re-reading the context · fan-out = 3 × ⌈N/2⌉ across parallel branches.

Review rate by derived oversight posture: advisory 100% · assisted, exceptions only 15% · autonomous with an audit sample 3% · autonomous 0%. You do not set this. It follows from the consequence of a wrong answer and the modelled end-to-end reliability.

Stage 5 · Latency and reliability

per-call p50 = TTFT(tier) + (O + Th) / throughput(tier), summed along the serial path, plus 0.35s per retrieval hop and 1.0s per tool call across 2 round trips. p95 = p50 × 2.1, an assumption and an upper bound. End-to-end reliability = A5 ^ serial steps.

What this tool cannot tell you

It has no benchmark, no peer cohort and no data about your organisation. It does not model build cost, change management, or the evaluation programme that actually decides whether any of this reaches production. It makes no model call of its own — every figure on this page is arithmetic you can reproduce.

Sources

Every weight and coefficient in the toolkit, on one printable page →

The chain

This is the second question in a chain of four: should this be an agent? → what shape would it be? → does it pay back? can you actually ship it? Each one can tell you not to do it. Back to the toolkit →